Fleming Island’s fall market is running at two speeds. September 2026 figures from the realMLS Market Review dashboard (data updated Oct. 7) show the northwest side of the island moving fast while the southwest side sat much longer. Meanwhile, road crews along US-17 and near Town Center Boulevard are still part of the daily drive. For NAS Jacksonville families house hunting this fall, that mix matters more than any single island-wide number.
Below, our team covers September by sub-area, the road work on the commute and why a closing before January 1 matters. For schools, neighborhoods and Black Creek, see our guide to living in Fleming Island.
Table of Contents
Listen to this episode: Fleming Island Homes, Fall 2026: Prices and Road Work — The Jacksonville Real Estate Podcast
Quick Facts: Fleming Island, Fall 2026
- September closings: 21 single-family sales across realMLS’s four Fleming Island sub-areas (our tally: 0 NE, 10 NW, 4 SE, 7 SW).
- Median sale price by sub-area: $535,000 NW, $494,500 SE and $565,000 SW. The NE sub-area had no closings.
- Active listings: 86 single-family homes across the four sub-areas in September.
- Clay County for comparison: a $355,000 single-family median, 48 median days on market and 4.4 months of supply, per the realMLS September 2026 Market Review.
- Homestead timing: own and live in the home on January 1, then file by March 1.
September, Sub-Area by Sub-Area
realMLS splits Fleming Island (MLS area 12) into four sub-areas, and its September single-family numbers, reported through the Domus Analytics Market Review, tell different stories:
- Northwest (122): 10 closed sales at a $535,000 median, 15 median days on market, 98.0% of list price received and 2.5 months of supply. One in five sales closed over list, and 16 homes went under contract against 8 new listings.
- Southeast (123): 4 closed sales at a $494,500 median, 21 median days on market, 98.8% of list price received and 6.5 months of supply.
- Southwest (124): 7 closed sales at a $565,000 median, but 123 median days on market and 95.9% of list price received, with 4.4 months of supply.
- Northeast (121): no single-family closings in September and 4 active listings.
Small samples swing hard. With four to ten sales per sub-area, one big waterfront closing can move a median a long way, so treat these figures as a one-month snapshot, not a trend.
Even so, it’s useful. On the northwest side, half of September’s sales went under contract in about two weeks or less, close to asking price. In the southwest pocket, sellers gave up more off list and waited months. Buyers can use that to set how hard to negotiate, and sellers should price to the sub-area, not an island-wide average. For the wider monthly picture, see our Jacksonville market updates.
Road Work on the Commute
Three projects touch the drive between the island and NAS Jacksonville this fall, according to Clay County’s road projects page:
- Radar Road to Town Center Boulevard: the county’s Sept. 23 update puts the new two-lane connection at about 40% complete, with no current traffic impacts and anticipated completion in March 2027. When finished, it will link US-17 to Town Center Boulevard, with bike lanes.
- US-17 (Park Avenue), Doctors Inlet to Wells Road: FDOT’s $5.3 million resurfacing in Orange Park covers the US-17 route north toward NAS Jacksonville. The county page lists overnight lane closures and completion scheduled for early 2027, weather permitting. Under the posted rules, single-lane closures aren’t allowed from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
- US-17, Water Oak Lane to Eagle Harbor Parkway: FDOT’s project page lists $13.3 million in resurfacing and turn-lane work on the island, with expected completion in summer 2026.
Night and shift workers will feel those closures most. Run the commute at your real duty hours before you write an offer. Our guide to homes near NAS Jacksonville covers the gates and the routes.
A Fall Reminder About Water
Earlier this month, the National Weather Service in Jacksonville had a coastal flood advisory in effect through 5 a.m. Oct. 8 as a nor’easter pushed water up the St. Johns River basin, and the Fleming Island-Orange Park Times reported the risk for low-lying areas along Doctors Lake and the river. Atlantic hurricane season also runs through Nov. 30, according to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
If a home you like backs to Black Creek, Doctors Lake or the St. Johns, ask for the flood zone and an insurance quote during your inspection period, not after it. Our pages on AE flood zone insurance and X zone flood insurance explain the difference.
Why a Closing Before January 1 Matters
Florida’s homestead exemption turns on who owns and lives in the home on January 1. Under section 196.031, Florida Statutes, the owner must hold title and make the home a permanent residence on that date. Section 196.011 sets March 1 as the deadline to file with the county property appraiser.
So a buyer who closes and moves in by Dec. 31 can apply with the Clay County Property Appraiser for the 2027 tax year, while a January closing generally waits a year. Florida law also has military-specific rules for owners who later get transfer orders. Our Florida homestead exemption guide covers the details, and the property appraiser can confirm your situation.
Search Fleming Island Homes
To see what’s on the market today, browse Fleming Island area homes for sale or search Fleming Island, FL homes for sale. Comparing Clay options? See Living in Orange Park.
Our team can pull the current sub-area numbers for a specific street, drive the US-17 commute with you at duty hours, and check flood and insurance details before you commit.
Touring Fleming Island This Fall?
Our highly trained team at Military Realty of Florida, led by broker-owner Matt Strickland, a retired Navy officer, helps military and civilian families buy and sell across Duval, Clay, St. Johns and Nassau counties. We’re glad to drive the US-17 commute with you and pull the numbers for the streets you like.
Call or text (904) 309-0609Episode Transcript
Fifteen days, versus one hundred twenty three days. Same island, in the same month. That is Fleming Island this fall, and it is where we are headed in Episode Two.
Welcome to The Jacksonville Real Estate Podcast. I am your host, Mike. This is Episode Two, your weekly look at Jacksonville and First Coast real estate, from Military Realty of Florida, where our broker owner is Matt Strickland, a retired United States Navy officer. Each week we take the research our team publishes on our blog, and put it in your ear. Straight numbers, named sources, no hype.
First, a sixty second market minute. The rate picture has not changed since Episode One. Freddie Mac reported on October eighth that the average thirty year fixed rate mortgage was seven point four zero percent. The next national rate update lands Thursday. And the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors has our region at a three point six month supply of homes, which is balanced territory. Now, to Fleming Island.
Our team's fall guide to Fleming Island is up on the blog, and it runs on September figures from real MLS, reported through the Domus Analytics Market Review. Here is the headline. Fleming Island is not one market this fall. It is at least two, running at very different speeds.
real MLS splits the island into four sub areas, and September saw twenty one single family closings across them. On the northwest side, ten homes closed, at a median price of five hundred and thirty five thousand dollars. They took a median of just fifteen days to sell. Sellers received about ninety eight percent of their asking price. One in five closed over asking. And sixteen homes went under contract, against only eight new listings. That is a two point five month supply. Tight, and fast.
The southeast side was calmer. Four closings, at a median price of four hundred and ninety four thousand, five hundred dollars. A median of twenty one days on the market. And a six point five month supply. That is buyer friendly.
And then there is the southwest side. Seven closings, at the island's highest median, five hundred and sixty five thousand dollars. But look at the clock. A median of one hundred twenty three days on the market. And sellers received about ninety six percent of asking. The northeast side had no single family closings in September at all, and only four active listings. Across the island there were eighty six active listings. One caution from our blog, and it matters. With only four to ten sales in a sub area, one big waterfront closing can move a median a long way. Treat this as a one month snapshot, not a trend.
For comparison, all of Clay County posted a median price of three hundred and fifty five thousand dollars in September, with a median of forty eight days on the market, and a four point four month supply. So even Fleming Island's quiet pockets sit well above the county price line. You are paying for the island, the schools, and the commute.
Speaking of the commute, it comes with construction this fall. Clay County's road projects page lists the new connection from Radar Road to Town Center Boulevard at about forty percent complete, expected in March of twenty twenty seven, linking U S seventeen to Town Center, with bike lanes. The Florida Department of Transportation is also resurfacing U S seventeen in Orange Park, a five point three million dollar project on the route north to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, with overnight lane closures into early twenty twenty seven. Our advice from the blog stands. Drive the commute at your actual duty hours, in the dark if that is your shift, before you write an offer. The drive at noon on a Saturday is not the drive at five thirty on a Monday morning.
One more fall note, and it is about water. Earlier this month the National Weather Service had a coastal flood advisory up along the St. Johns River basin. If a Fleming Island home backs to Black Creek, Doctors Lake, or the river, get the flood zone and an insurance quote during your inspection period. Not after it. Hurricane season runs through November thirtieth.
Time for our P C S tip of the week, and it is a calendar tip that can save you real money. Florida's homestead exemption turns on January first. Under Florida law, you must own the home, and live in it as your permanent residence, on January first, to claim the exemption for that tax year. The filing deadline is March first, with your county property appraiser. So a family that closes, and moves in, by December thirty first can file for the twenty twenty seven tax year. Close in January instead, and you generally wait a full extra year. If your P C S timeline gives you any choice at all, that December closing is worth real dollars.
From our own book this week, a quick reminder of two Military Realty of Florida listings. Two twenty six Tower Court, in Shearwater, in St. Augustine, is listed at four hundred ninety nine thousand dollars. Four bedrooms, three bathrooms, built in twenty twenty four, listed with our own Erin Torres. And thirty two forty eight Myra Street, in Jacksonville, is on the market at two hundred fifty four thousand, nine hundred dollars. And if Fleming Island is your target, you can search every island listing on our website, and our team will pull the sub area numbers for the exact streets you like.
That is Episode Two of The Jacksonville Real Estate Podcast. If you are buying, selling, or relocating to Naval Air Station Jacksonville, Naval Station Mayport, or anywhere on the First Coast, talk to Matt Strickland and the team at Military Realty of Florida. Call or text nine zero four, three zero nine, zero six zero nine. That number again is nine zero four, three zero nine, zero six zero nine. Find us online at military realty florida dot com. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell to get notifications of all our new episodes. Thanks for listening. We will see you next week, with fresh numbers, fresh listings, and another P C S tip.
Listen to this episode: Fleming Island Homes, Fall 2026: Prices and Road Work on Spotify
More episodes of The Jacksonville Real Estate Podcast
For education only. Market figures are realMLS September 2026 data as reported by Domus Analytics and change every month. Road schedules, flood advisories and tax rules change too. Confirm them with Clay County, FDOT, the Clay County Property Appraiser and your insurance agent before you rely on them.